The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK

BACKGROUND: UK estimates of age related macular degeneration (AMD) occurrence vary. AIMS: To estimate prevalence, number and incidence of AMD by type in the UK population aged ≥50 years. METHODS: Age-specific prevalence rates of AMD obtained from a Bayesian meta-analysis of AMD prevalence were applied to UK 2007-2009 population data. Incidence was estimated from modelled age-specific prevalence. RESULTS: Overall prevalence of late AMD was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 3.3%), equivalent to 513 000 cases (95% CrI 363 000 to 699 000); estimated to increase to 679 000 cases by 2020. Prevalences were 4.8% aged ≥65 years, 12.2% aged ≥80 years. Geographical atrophy (GA) prevalence rates were 1.3% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.9%), 2.6% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.7%) and 6.7% (95% CrI 4.6% to 9.6%); neovascular AMD (NVAMD) 1.2% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.7%), 2.5% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.4%) and 6.3% (95% CrI 4.5% to 8.6%), respectively. The estimated number of prevalent cases of late AMD were 60% higher in women versus men (314 000 cases in women, 192 000 men). Annual incidence of late AMD, GA and NVAMD per 1000 women was 4.1 (95% CrI 2.4% to 6.8%), 2.4 (95% CrI 1.5% to 3.9%) and 2.3 (95% CrI 1.4% to 4.0%); in men 2.6 (95% CrI 1.5% to 4.4%), 1.7 (95% CrI 1.0% to 2.8%) and 1.4 (95% CrI 0.8% to 2.4%), respectively. 71 000 new cases of late AMD were estimated per year. CONCLUSIONS: These estimates will guide health and social service provision for those with late AMD and enable estimation of the cost of introducing new treatments

Travel to School and Physical Activity Levels in 9-10 Year-Old UK Children of Different Ethnic Origin; Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE)

BACKGROUND: Travel to school may offer a convenient way to increase physical activity levels in childhood. We examined the association between method of travel to school and physical activity levels in urban multi-ethnic children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: 2035 children (aged 9-10 years in 2006-7) provided data on their usual method of travel to school and wore an Actigraph-GT1M activity monitor during waking hours. Associations between method of travel and mean level of physical activity (counts per minute [CPM], steps, time spent in light, moderate or vigorous activity per day) were examined in models adjusted for confounding variables. 1393 children (69%) walked or cycled to school; 161 (8%) used public transport and 481 (24%) travelled by car. White European children were more likely to walk/cycle, black African Caribbeans to travel by public transport and South Asian children to travel by car. Children travelling by car spent less time in moderate to vigorous physical activity (-7 mins, 95%CI-9,-5), and had lower CPM (-32 CPM, 95%CI-44,-19) and steps per day (-813 steps, 95%CI,-1043,-582) than walkers/cyclists. Pupils travelling by public transport had similar activity levels to walkers/cyclists. Lower physical activity levels amongst car travellers' were especially marked at travelling times (school days between 8-9 am, 3-5 pm), but were also evident on weekdays at other times and at weekends; they did not differ by gender or ethnic group. CONCLUSION: Active travel to school is associated with higher levels of objectively measured physical activity, particularly during periods of travel but also at other times. If children travelling by car were to achieve physical activity levels (steps) similar to children using active travel, they would increase their physical activity levels by 9%. However, the population increase would be a modest 2%, because of the low proportion of car travellers in this urban population

Patterns of body size and adiposity among UK children of South Asian, black African-Caribbean and white European origin: Child Heart And health Study in England (CHASE Study)

Background: The objective of this study was to examine adiposity patterns in UK South Asian, black African–Caribbean and white European children using a range of adiposity markers. A cross-sectional survey in London, Birmingham and Leicester primary schools was conducted. Weight, height, waist circumference, skinfold thickness values (biceps, triceps, subscapular and suprailiac) were measured. Fat mass was derived from bioimpedance; optimally height-standardized indices were derived for all adiposity markers. Ethnic origin was based on parental self-report. Multilevel models were used to obtain adjusted means and ethnic differences adjusted for gender, age, month, observer and school (fitted as a random effect). A total of 5887 children aged 9–10 years participated (response rate 68%), including 1345 white Europeans, 1523 South Asians and 1570 black African–Caribbeans. Results: Compared with white Europeans, South Asians had a higher sum of all skinfolds and fat mass percentage, and their body mass index (BMI) was lower. South Asians were slightly shorter but use of optimally height-standardized indices did not materially affect these comparisons. At any given fat mass, BMI was lower in South Asians than white Europeans. In similar comparisons, black African–Caribbeans had a lower sum of all skinfolds but a higher fat mass percentage, and their BMI was higher. Black African–Caribbeans were markedly taller. Use of optimally height-standardized indices yielded markedly different findings; sum of skinfolds index was markedly lower, whereas fat mass index and weight-for-height index were similar. At any given fat mass, BMI was similar in black African–Caribbeans and white Europeans. Conclusions: UK South Asian children have higher adiposity levels and black African–Caribbeans have similar or lower adiposity levels when compared with white Europeans. However, these differences are not well represented by comparisons based on BMI, which systematically underestimates adiposity in South Asians, and in black African–Caribbeans it overestimates adiposity because of its association with height

Quantifying childhood fat mass: comparison of a novel height-and-weight-based prediction approach with DXA and bioelectrical impedance

Accurate assessment of childhood adiposity is important both for individuals and populations. We compared fat mass (FM) predictions from a novel prediction model based on height, weight and demographic factors (height–weight equation) with FM from bioelectrical impedance (BIA) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), using the deuterium dilution method as a reference standard. FM data from all four methods were available for 174 ALSPAC Study participants, seen 2002–2003, aged 11–12-years. FM predictions from the three approaches were compared to the reference standard using; R2, calibration (slope and intercept) and root mean square error (RMSE). R2 values were high from ‘height–weight equation’ (90%) but lower than from DXA (95%) and BIA (91%). Whilst calibration intercepts from all three approaches were close to the ideal of 0, the calibration slope from the ‘height–weight equation’ (slope = 1.02) was closer to the ideal of 1 than DXA (slope = 0.88) and BIA (slope = 0.87) assessments. The ‘height–weight equation’ provided more accurate individual predictions with a smaller RMSE value (2.6 kg) than BIA (3.1 kg) or DXA (3.4 kg). Predictions from the ‘height–weight equation’ were at least as accurate as DXA and BIA and were based on simpler measurements and open-source equation, emphasising its potential for both individual and population-level FM assessments

Ethnic Differences in Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Between UK Children of Black African-Caribbean and White European Origin.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: UK black African-Caribbean adults have higher risks of stroke than white Europeans and have been shown to have increased carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT). We examined whether corresponding ethnic differences in cIMT were apparent in childhood and, if so, whether these could be explained by ethnic differences in cardiovascular risk markers. METHODS: We conducted a 2-stage survey of 939 children (208 white European, 240 black African-Caribbean, 258 South Asian, 63 other Asian, 170 other ethnicity), who had a cardiovascular risk assessment and measurements of cIMT at mean ages of 9.8 and 10.8 years, respectively. RESULTS: Black African-Caribbean children had a higher cIMT than white Europeans (mean difference, 0.014 mm; 95% CI, 0.008-0.021 mm; P<0.0001). cIMT levels in South Asian and other Asian children were however similar to those of white Europeans. Among all children, cIMT was positively associated with age, systolic and diastolic blood pressure and inversely with combined skinfold thickness and serum triglyceride. Mean triglyceride was lower among black African-Caribbeans than white Europeans; blood pressure and skinfold thickness did not differ appreciably. However, adjustment for these risk factors had little effect on the cIMT difference between black African-Caribbeans and white Europeans. CONCLUSIONS: UK black African-Caribbean children have higher cIMT levels in childhood; the difference is not explained by conventional cardiovascular risk markers. There may be important opportunities for early cardiovascular prevention, particularly in black African-Caribbean children

Influence of Adiposity on Insulin Resistance and Glycemia Markers Among UK Children of South Asian, Black African-Caribbean, and White European Origin Child Heart and Health Study in England

OBJECTIVE: Ethnic differences in type 2 diabetes risk between South Asians and white Europeans originate before adult life and are not fully explained by higher adiposity levels in South Asians. Although metabolic sensitivity to adiposity may differ between ethnic groups, this has been little studied in childhood. We have therefore examined the associations among adiposity, insulin resistance, and glycemia markers in children of different ethnic origins. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 4,633 9- to 10-year-old children (response rate 68%) predominantly of South Asian, black African-Caribbean, and white European origin (n = 1,266, 1,176, and 1,109, respectively) who had homeostasis model assessments of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), glycemia markers (HbA1c and fasting glucose), and adiposity (BMI, waist circumference, skinfold thicknesses, and bioimpedance [fat mass]). RESULTS: All adiposity measures were positively associated with HOMA-IR in all ethnic groups, but associations were stronger among South Asians compared to black African-Caribbeans and white Europeans. For a 1-SD increase in fat mass percentage, percentage differences in HOMA-IR were 37.5% (95% CI 33.3–41.7), 29.7% (25.8–33.8), and 27.0% (22.9–31.2), respectively (P interaction < 0.001). All adiposity markers were positively associated with HbA1c in South Asians and black African-Caribbeans but not in white Europeans; for a 1-SD increase in fat mass percentage, percentage differences in HbA1c were 0.04% (95% CI 0.03–0.06), 0.04% (0.02–0.05), and 0.02% (−0.00 to 0.04), respectively (P interaction < 0.001). Patterns for fasting glucose were less consistent. CONCLUSIONS: South Asian children are more metabolically sensitive to adiposity. Early prevention or treatment of childhood obesity may be critical for type 2 diabetes prevention, especially in South Asians

Sampling and measurement methods for a study of childhood refractive error in a UK population

International audienceBackground There is a paucity of data describing the prevalence of childhood refractive error in the United Kingdom. The Northern Ireland Childhood Errors of Refraction study, along with its sister study the Aston Eye Study, are the first population-based surveys of children using both random cluster sampling and cycloplegic autorefraction to quantify levels of refractive error in the United Kingdom. Methods Children aged 6-7 years and 12-13 years were recruited from a stratified random sample of primary and post-primary schools, representative of the population of Northern Ireland as a whole. Measurements included assessment of visual acuity, oculomotor balance, ocular biometry and cycloplegic binocular open-field autorefraction. Questionnaires were used to identify putative risk factors for refractive error. Results 399 (57%) of 6-7 years and 669 (60%) of 12-13 years participated. School participation rates did not vary statistically significantly with the size of the school, whether the school is urban or rural, or whether it is in a deprived/non-deprived area. The gender balance, ethnicity and type of schooling of participants are reflective of the Northern Ireland population. Conclusions The study design, sample size and methodology will ensure accurate measures of the prevalence of refractive errors in the target population and will facilitate comparisons with other population-based refractive data

The effect of moving to East Village, the former London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games Athletes' Village, on mode of travel (ENABLE London study, a natural experiment)

Background Interventions to encourage active modes of travel (walking, cycling) may improve physical activity levels, but longitudinal evidence is limited and major change in the built environment / travel infrastructure may be needed. East Village (the former London 2012 Olympic Games Athletes Village) has been repurposed on active design principles with improved walkability, open space and public transport and restrictions on residential car parking. We examined the effect of moving to East Village on adult travel patterns. Methods One thousand two hundred seventy-eight adults (16+ years) seeking to move into social, intermediate, and market-rent East Village accommodation were recruited in 2013–2015, and followed up after 2 years. Individual objective measures of physical activity using accelerometry (ActiGraph GT3X+) and geographic location using GPS travel recorders (QStarz) were time-matched and a validated algorithm assigned four travel modes (walking, cycling, motorised vehicle, train). We examined change in time spent in different travel modes, using multilevel linear regresssion models adjusting for sex, age group, ethnicity, housing group (fixed effects) and household (random effect), comparing those who had moved to East Village at follow-up with those who did not. Results Of 877 adults (69%) followed-up, 578 (66%) provided valid accelerometry and GPS data for at least 1 day (≥540 min) at both time points; half had moved to East Village. Despite no overall effects on physical activity levels, sizeable improvements in walkability and access to public transport in East Village resulted in decreased daily vehicle travel (8.3 mins, 95%CI 2.5,14.0), particularly in the intermediate housing group (9.6 mins, 95%CI 2.2,16.9), and increased underground travel (3.9 mins, 95%CI 1.2,6.5), more so in the market-rent group (11.5 mins, 95%CI 4.4,18.6). However, there were no effects on time spent walking or cycling

Uncertainty quantification in medical image segmentation with normalizing flows

Medical image segmentation is inherently an ambiguous task due to factors such as partial volumes and variations in anatomical definitions. While in most cases the segmentation uncertainty is around the border of structures of interest, there can also be considerable inter-rater differences. The class of conditional variational autoencoders (cVAE) offers a principled approach to inferring distributions over plausible segmentations that are conditioned on input images. Segmentation uncertainty estimated from samples of such distributions can be more informative than using pixel level probability scores. In this work, we propose a novel conditional generative model that is based on conditional Normalizing Flow (cFlow). The basic idea is to increase the expressivity of the cVAE by introducing a cFlow transformation step after the encoder. This yields improved approximations of the latent posterior distribution, allowing the model to capture richer segmentation variations. With this we show that the quality and diversity of samples obtained from our conditional generative model is enhanced. Performance of our model, which we call cFlow Net, is evaluated on two medical imaging datasets demonstrating substantial improvements in both qualitative and quantitative measures when compared to a recent cVAE based model.Comment: 12 pages. Accepted to be presented at 11th International Workshop on Machine Learning in Medical Imaging. Source code will be updated at https://github.com/raghavian/cFlo

Family and home correlates of children's physical activity in a multi-ethnic population: the cross-sectional Child Heart and Health Study in England (CHASE).

BACKGROUND: The influence of the family and home environment on childhood physical activity (PA) and whether this differs between ethnic groups remains uncertain. This paper investigates associations between family and home factors and childhood PA in a multi-ethnic population and explores whether associations differ between ethnic groups. METHODS: Cross-sectional study of 9-10 year-old schoolchildren, in which PA was objectively measured by Actigraph GT1 M accelerometers for ≤7 days to estimate average activity counts per minute (CPM). Information on 11 family and home environmental factors were collected from questionnaires. Associations between these factors and CPM were quantified using multi-level linear regression. Interactions with ethnicity were explored using likelihood ratio tests. RESULTS: 2071 children (mean ± SD age: 9.95 ± 0.38 years; 47.8% male) participated, including 25% white European, 28% black African-Caribbean, 24% South Asian, and 24% other ethnic origin. Family PA support and having a pet were associated with higher average CPM (adjusted mean difference: 6 (95%CI:1,10) and 13 (95%CI:3,23), respectively) while car ownership and having internet access at home were associated with lower average CPM (adjusted mean difference: -19 (95%CI:-30,-8) and -10 (95%CI:-19,0), respectively). These associations did not differ by ethnicity. Although the number of siblings showed no overall association with PA, there was some evidence of interaction with ethnicity (p for ethnicity interaction=0.04, 0.05 in a fully-adjusted model); a positive significant association with number of siblings was observed in white Europeans (per sibling CPM difference 10.3 (95% CI 1.7, 18.9)) and a positive non-significant association was observed in black African-Caribbeans (per sibling CPM difference: 3.5 (-4.2, 11.2)) while a negative, non-significant association was observed in South Asians (per sibling CPM difference -6.0 (-15.5, 3.4)). CONCLUSIONS: Some family and home environmental factors have modest associations with childhood PA and these are mostly similar across different ethnic groups. This suggests that targeting these factors in an intervention to promote PA would be relevant for children in different ethnic groups.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are